Nairobi’s gleaming skyline reflects its rising stature as a global centre — the United Nations Office at Nairobi already hosts major UN functions and three key agencies — UNICEF, UNFPA and UN Women — are slated to relocate significant operations there by 2026.

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This article was written by Nils-Sjard Schulz, founding partner of MultiPolar, and first published on Bits, Bobs & Big Ideas, a platform curated by Tomorrow Is Possible.

The debate about “what comes after 2030” is no longer about ticking boxes on goals. It’s about power, positioning, and the shape of multilateralism itself. The SDGs were the rare moment when development and sustainability fused under a single banner – less a list than a paradigm. But that consensus is fraying. Global development finance is strained, geopolitics are sharper, and multilateral systems are under stress. The next stage will not be delivered in one neat summit. It will be contested across multiple tracks, with alliances shifting and priorities competing for space.

Many developing countries are unlikely to walk away, however. The SDGs have been embedded in national plans, fiscal frameworks, and even legal mandates. Ministries of finance are issuing SDG bonds; city governments are running local 2030 planning. Whatever the turbulence in New York or Geneva, the goals will remain an operating language and policy anchor for many sovereign actors beyond 2030.

As a core piece to the future of the 2030 Agenda, UN80 isn’t just a revitalization effort – it’s a live test of political will, legitimacy, and institutional purpose. Launched in 2025, it is meant to streamline and strengthen the UN for its 80th anniversary. It could energize reform, but it could also dilute mandates, prioritize cost-cutting over purpose, and test legitimacy if civil society and member states feel excluded. And there is tangible pushback from parts of the UN workforce.

How UN80 lands will shape not just structures and funding, but trust in the system itself. And the next big checkpoint comes well before 2030: the SDG Summit in 2027. It won’t just measure progress – it will reveal where political will and financing are heading, whether toward renewed multilateralism, agile coalitions, or silent retreat.

Against this background, three broad futures are emerging. Each is political. Each rewards a different kind of statecraft. And all will be influenced by what happens between now and 2030, especially UN80 – a reform moment that could either inject new energy or drain what’s left of the system.

1. Renewed multilateralism: Reform the core, broaden the table

This is the high-ambition play: real reform of the UN system, integration of finance, climate, and SDG tracks, and a redistribution of voice and responsibility in a multipolar world. It would mean revisiting old and new divides – think governance of technology, financing, taxation, migration – and how to bridge these between advanced and emerging powers while leaving no one behind. For some, UN80 is the proving ground. If that reform goes beyond efficiency tweaks, and delivers on restoring legitimacy, protecting norms, and moving money to delivery, it can spill into the post-2030 Agenda and create momentum. If it underwhelms, appetite for another “grand bargain” will evaporate very quickly.

Among constraints, however, geopolitical competition complicates consensus: major powers, including the US and China, will prioritize national strategic interests, and support for global public goods will hinge on alignment with security, economic, or tech priorities. The open question is whether mid-sized powers—split between alignment with and estrangement particularly from Washington DC—will copy that script or set the pace for renewed multilateralism capable of driving a package. Institutionally, success requires a Secretariat willing to lead and agencies ready to be more than service providers; without strong internal leadership, this scenario remains aspirational. Financially, innovation – whether a global SDG finance vehicle or meaningful tax and debt reforms – could give reformers leverage.

2. Coalition of the Willing: Clubs, networks, and programmatic business

When universality stalls, politics move to coalitions – clubs of the willing around climate, digital governance, tax, or social protection. Some already exist: BRICS+ with the NDB’s local-currency push, the OECD/G20 tax deal, emerging AI-safety partnerships. Coalitions can move faster, innovate, and unlock financing where multilateral processes bog down. They also let mid-sized powers, cities, regions, and firms shape agendas. But they invite forum-shopping and exclusion: those with the right alliances, markets, or tech seats write the rules; LDCs/SIDS and smaller MICs risk becoming price-takers as standards fragment.

If UN80 undercuts universal norms and accelerates core funding shrinks, agencies will brand for earmarks and juggle mandates with fundraising. In such a landscape, the challenge is clear: how to ensure that coalitions complement rather than cannibalize the universal track, with transparency, standards and minimum inclusion.

3. Freeze: The business-as-usual default

The least demanding option is to extend the SDGs, tweak indicators, and call it continuity. Or to watch the agenda splinter into passive silos: climate, health, AI, and others proceeding on separate tracks but with limited coordination, political drive, or resources – indeed, a system easy for forum-shopping. This will appeal to those wary of big negotiations, uneasy with big-picture accountability, or simply tired of reform. In some capitals, “freeze” is not failure; it can be a strategy, bringing stability and predictability. But it carries risk: declining legitimacy, missed synergies, and a slow erosion of multilateral relevance. It also has beneficiaries—risk-averse donors with strong bilateral tools, siloed line ministries, and agencies whose earmark pipelines run smoother without integration.

UN80 again looms large here. A reform process that exhausts political, financial and reputational capital could leave little energy for the next agenda, making “freeze” the fallback. Employee pushback and the loss of expertise caused by staff cuts could further blunt ambitions. Reform fatigue could entrench inertia and fragment trust, especially if the process is seen as rushed, top-down, or insensitive to mandates.

Cross-cutting moves

Regardless of the scenario, four lessons stand out:

• Agenda-setting will happen in fragments: UNGA, FfD4, regional and other modular forums, climate and tech debates. UN80 will shape the mood music. Governments need a narrative and alliances now, not in 2029.

• VLRs, cities, and regional forums will remain the places where credibility is built. Coalitions will look thin without local delivery.

• Whether for reform, clubs, or stability, those who define new funds and refit old ones for action will decide what matters.

• Whether UN80 reforms preserve core mandates or strip them under cost pressures is a litmus test for systemic resilience.

Bottom line: Post-2030 is not a technical exercise. It is a political marketplace, and UN80 is the first big test of its future currency. The three scenarios are not alternatives; they will coexist. The smart actors will build capacity for all three: reforming where they can, clubbing where they must, and hedging against drift. What they cannot afford is to be absent – or to mistake process for power.

Oh – and whether we drive or drift, the core is this: “Power corresponds to the human ability not just to act but to act in concert.” – Hannah Arendt